Requisite variety of strategic "ways of looking"?


Contrarian Analysis as a Means of Avoiding Intelligence Failure (Part #6)

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The United Nations now envisages a Summit of the Future planned for 2024 -- in the light of the UN Secretary-General's vision for the future of global cooperation in the form of a report titled Our Common Agenda (2021). This is framed as a new quest for a unifying "answer" seemingly with little recognition of requisite variety in systemic terms. This is unforunate when it might be expected that the United Nations would be a flag bearer for a more appropriate understanding of diversity in the light of its associated paradoxes (Paradoxes of Durable Peace, Heaven and a Sustainable Lifestyle, 2023). 

The challenge of such a summit can be presented otherwise -- as the quest for an appropriately "deadly question" capable of reframing current discourse modalities, as argued separately (World Futures Conference as Catastrophic Question, 2013)? Furthermore, rather than single deadly question, a more fruitful quest might be for a configuration of such questions. This might call for a reconfiguration of the set of Sustainable Development Goals in the light of the cognitive and existential questions with which each is associated.

Borromean discourse? As suggested above by the inspiration for new thinking in fundamental physics, the requisite diversity may necessarily be characterized by the perception of "craziness" -- mutually perceived. Ironically this recalls the influential strategic philosophy of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). In that sense the distinctive hypotheses call each other into question -- even to the point of being perceived as mutually incommensurable. Curiously this pattern may be most readily understood through the widely recognized hand game of rock-paper-scissors -- now extended to a "5-weapon" version rock-paper-scissors-spock-lizard.

It can be argued that this 5-fold pattern merits comparison with the strategic challenge of the "5-turnarounds" promoted in the Earth4All initative of the Club of Rome, as discussed separately (Beyond binary dialogue -- the subtle possibility of "Borromean intercourse"? 2023). This frames the possibility in terms of the paradoxical configuration of Borromean rings of which there are 3-fold, 5-fold, 7-fold, and more variants (Marc Chamberland and Eugene A. Herman, Rock-paper-scissors meets Borromean rings, The Mathematical Intelligencer, 37, 2015, 2)

5-fold game of
Rock-Scissors-Paper-Lizard-Spock		 "5-turnarounds"
of Earth4All initiative
of Club of Rome		 5-fold
Borromean rings
oriented graph hand gestures
5 turnarounds of Earth4All 5-fold Borromean rings
Geysirhead, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons DMacks, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons Reproduced from Earth4All Reproduced from
Chamberland and Herman (2015)

Thinking hats? The mutually challenging relationship between a 6-fold pattern of radically distinct ways of thinking has been extensively argued by Edward de Bono in a series of books (Six Thinking Hats: an essential approach to business management, 1985; Six Frames For Thinking About Information, 2008). He has adapted the pattern to "action" and to "values" (Six Action Shoes, 1991; Six Value Medals, 2005).

Further insights are to be derived from the manner in which this pattern has been variously accepted or rejected in favour of others. Of particular interest is the extent to which the pattern has been considered  in relation to global strategy articulation. Given the problematically discourse between Palestine and Israel over decades, it remains unclear why that proimitive binary modality has not been transcended in the light of other arguments of Edward de Bono (Water Logic: The Alternative to I am Right You are Wrong, 1993; Intelligence is Not Enough, 2013).

Given the subtlety of their mystical insights, it is remarkable that the righteous theologians of the Abrahamic religions, have been completely unable to reframe their binary dogma in terms of some form of "water logic". (or Flowscapes). At the time of writing, anticipating the Israeli response to Hamas, strategic consideration could also have been given to "Po" -- de Bono's timeout process (Po: Beyond Yes and No, 1973), as discussed separately (Categorical Straightjackets PO: A suggestion for a de-patterning device for international organization descriptions, 1974)..

In considering the nature of "radically distinct" and "conceptually incommensurable", the unstated psychodynamics in practice merit particular attention (Epistemological Challenge of Cognitive Body Odour: exploring the underside of dialogue, 2006; Dynamically Gated Conceptual Communities, 2004; Snoring of The Other: a politically relevant psycho-spiritual metaphor? 2006; Reframing Personal Relationships between Innovators or Leaders, 1998)

"Ways of looking"? Insight has been variously engendered from recognition of the variety of ways of looking, This was originally framed in aesthetic terms in a much-cited poem by Wallace Stevens (Thirteen Ways of Looking at a Blackbird, 1917), as is evident from its use by other poets, and discussed separately (Ways of looking -- and ways of thinking? 2021; Thirteen ways of apprehending blackbird song, 2014).

The social sciences have considered the variety through the lens of the much-cited study by Gareth Morgan (Images of Organization, 1986). This offers an 8-fold framework through which organizations can be perceived: machines, organisms, brains, cultures, political systems, psychic prisons, flux and transformation, and instruments of domination. This could be contrasted with an 8-fold organization of computer memory, as discussed separately (Torus interconnect -- as used in supercomputers, 2019).

Rather than simply recognizing the variety of ways meriting attention, the more fundamental challenge is exploration of the necessarily paradoxical processes through which incommensurable modalities might be fruitfully interrelated (Interrelating Multiple Ways of Looking at a Crisis, 2021; Diversity of Understandings of any Universe of Information, 2006). It is far from clear that this possibility has been considered by the intelligence community -- given the focus on identifying a preferred hypothesis, despite the challenges of confirmation bias.

Nor is it clear whether there is articulated recognition by the United Nations of the necessity of interrelating multiple strategic perspectives -- despite variously promoting their diversity in cultural terms (Diversity, Equity and Inclusion, United Nations Development Programme; Universal Declaration on Cultural Diversity, UNESCO).

Axes of bias? Seemingly unrelated to the strategic preoccupations of the intelligence community, it is intriguing to note the variety of ways in which cultural biases have been explored by different authors (Systems of Categories Distinguishing Cultural Biases, 1993; Systematic approaches to contrasting ways of thinking, 2021). Typically characterized by "7 plus or minus 2" orientations, these can be understood to include the patterns distinguished by:

Potentially the most relevant to "interrelating" the incommensurable cognitive modalities distinguished is the philosophical approach of Jones -- despite the title (which refers to its application to one case study). As a valuable complexification of a pattern of strategic of 7 axes of bias, it is summarized separately (Axes of Bias in Inter-Sectoral Dialogue, 1992; Axes of Bias in Inter-Cultural Dialogue, 1993), and presented in the animation below (left).This has been variously discussed and illustrated in relation to polyhedral configurations of cognitive bias:

The framework of Jones is comparable to the set of 7 pairs of opposites of Oliver C. Robinson (Paths Between Head and Heart: exploring the harmonies of science and spirituality, 2018), as summarized by the author (Palintonos Harmonia: the alchemy of opposites, Paradigm Explorer, 2018, 2), and presented below (right). Images of both configurations were presented in an introductory argument (Values, principles and axes of bias -- as configurations of spikes? 2020).

Rotation of configuration of 7 pairs of contrasting cognitive modalities
(mapped onto opposing vertices of a rhombic dodecahedron -- linked by implied axes through the centre)
Axes of cognitive bias (Jones, 1961) Pairs of opposites (Robinson, 2018)
Configuration of 7 axes of cognitive bias on a rhombic dodecahedron Configuration of 7 pairs of opposites on a rhombic dodecahedron
Animations made using Stella Polyhedron Navigator

Especially noteworthy with respect to use of the rhombic dodecahedron is the importance of its role in the study of logical connectivity (Oppositional Logic as Comprehensible Key to Sustainable Democracy: configuring patterns of anti-otherness, 2018). This polyhedron is a geometric dual of the cuboctahedron whose particular characteristics with respect to transformation between polyhedral forms have been highlighted by Buckminster Fuller, notably proving fundamental to his design of geodesic domes.

It might then be asked how mapping the radically contrasting strategic biases of WEF and WSF onto the axes of that configuration would position them such as to render their asserted differences predictable. The animations above are reproduced from a discussion of the role of missiles and their analogues -- especially evident in the Ukrainse-Russia and Palestine-Israel confrontations (Missiles, Needles, Missions, Rifles, Projects, Bullets, 2020).

The challenge for civilization is remarkably framed by the massive investment focus on missiles and the threats they constitute -- with the ultimate threat of nuclear war, as tracked by the Doomsday Clock now at seconds to midnight. This is curiously matched by the role of needles, whether to deliver the COVID-19 vaccine as the much sought cure-all, or in their role in delivering psychological relief from the stressful realities of daily life. As a new source of inspiration, the "reset" promoted by WEF evokes a new fervour in some as a mission of dramatic urgency requiring worldwide mobilization -- recalling the acclaimed role of such missions in the past: sustainability, socialism, communism, capitalism, religion, and the like.

Poyhedral confiurations: Of relevance to the polyhedral configuration of contrasting hypotheses is the sense in which such a configuration effectively frames a complex space of discourse -- namely of discourse of a higher order of complexity, as separately discussed (Second-order Dialogue and Higher Order Discourse for the Future, 2023). The concern emphasized above is the tendency to "collapse" that space -- effectively reducing its dimensionality, possibly to a single modality.

A particular advantage of polyhedral configurations of bias is the sense in which they offer a means of interrelating the disagreements fundamental to contrasting hypotheses -- avoiding the tendency to eliminate as many as possible. Some relevance to multi-criteria decision analysis and to multivariate analysis is evident (J. W. Seaman Jr, et al, Polyhedron Graphs for Displaying Multivariate Data, Computers and Mathematics with Applications, 14, 1987, 4). However it is seemingly the relatively obscure discipline of oppositional logic which makes extensive use of such geometry, as discussed separately (Oppositional Logic as Comprehensible Key to Sustainable Democracy, 2018; Reframing forms of connectivity through the logic of oppositional geometry, 2020; Relevance of oppositional logic to relating virtues and sins, 2022).

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