Conclusion

Anticipating Future Strategic Triple Whammies (Part #7)

Reframing the debate: Of particular interest, as with the energy debate, is where both parties assiduously avoid consideration of questions which might reframe the debate within which their identities are so well defined. With respect to that debate, in a sense both parties are together complicit in avoiding any rethinking regarding the framing of the need for "energy" (Lipoproblems: Developing a Strategy Omitting a Key Problem, 2009).

In a commentary on both the Japanese disaster and the simultaneous UN intervention in Libya, an appropriate question is asked by Neal Ascherson: If we aspire to put the world right, we must be sure of what is wrong (The Observer, 20 March 2011). Fruitfully he cites an engineer who argues:

As an engineer, I can tell you the root of all human mistakes. It's people putting things right, before they have finished finding out what's wrong.

This suggests a refinement of the classic: If it ain't broke, don't fix it. This might then read: If you cannot tell what people mean when they say a technology is at risk, then you do not have the competence to eliminate that risk. This would be consistent with Ascherson's comment:

Common to most of these horrors is the world's convulsive greed for energy - whether nuclear or fossil. It's that greed which makes people rush in with cowboy repair solutions, failing to seek the real sources of a problem.

Response to the Japanese disaster exemplifies inappropriate framing of challenges:

in the particular case, the tragic destruction was the consequence of bad placement of habitations and installations. It is therefore the strategic decision governing such placement, compounded by negligence of documented warnings, which together enabled that destruction (as in the case of other such disasters). The destruction (and loss of life) was not caused by the earthquake, nor by the tsunami, nor (potentially) by the reactor accidents. Their effects were the consequence of inappropriate governance. Statements that the "tsunami caused the destruction" reinforces inadequate systemic thinking. The tsunami was only a proximate cause., triggered by the earthquake. The "hidden cause" of the destruction was the inadequacy of the preceding systemic thinking.
whether from a legal, insurance, religious perspective or other perspective, it is neither "nature" nor "God" that can be claimed to be culpable for such a disaster and a "crime against humanity". The "crimes against humanity" which could be fruitfully explored are those perpetrated by the individuals and institutions who knowingly took risks in placing lives, livelihoods and property in danger.
more generally, as a more fundamental cause of global crises, is failure to even consider why a population is under increasing pressure for resources (such as energy) -- despite documented warnings. This then encourages such inadequate systemic thinking and provides excuses to support further inappropriate high-risk governance -- increasing the vulnerability of lives, livelihoods and property.

In considering the potential optimistic and pessimistic outcomes of the Fukushima disaster, the challenge is framed by Jeffrey Kluger (Fear Goes Nuclear, Time, 28 March 2011):

It's still too early to say whether the bright yin or the dark yang will be closer to how the Fukushima drama unfolds, and true clarity may not come for a long time yet. What is certain is that whatever happens, we all need to start thinking very hard about how we got into this mess and how we can prevent it from ever happening again. [emphasis added]

Learning from the financial crisis: The emphasis here is not however on any specific class of disasters, as exemplified by Fukushima, but rather on the strategic capacity to anticipate complex disasters and articulate responses to them. Rather than anticipate analysis of the Fukushaima disaster, it is therefore appropriate to note the report on the financial crisis of 2007-2010 by the US Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC) in January 2011. It concluded that:

...the crisis was avoidable and was caused by: Widespread failures in financial regulation, including the Federal Reserve's failure to stem the tide of toxic mortgages; Dramatic breakdowns in corporate governance including too many financial firms acting recklessly and taking on too much risk; An explosive mix of excessive borrowing and risk by households and Wall Street that put the financial system on a collision course with crisis; Key policy makers ill prepared for the crisis, lacking a full understanding of the financial system they oversaw; and systemic breaches in accountability and ethics at all levels

The report notes that:

As this report goes to print, there are 26 million Americans who are out of work ... Nearly $11tn in household wealth has vanished ... The collateral damage of this crisis has been real people and real communities. The impacts of this crisis are likely to be felt for a generation.

Commentary on the report notes how the blame is spread systemically, including homeowners, with few subject to effective prosecution (Dominic Rushe, Financial crisis was 'avoidable', The Guardian, 27 January 2011). There is no question whatsoever of "crimes against humanity" or "terrorism" (Extreme Financial Risk-taking as Extremism -- subject to anti-terrorism legislation? 2009). Most striking is the widely note re-emergence of the "fat cat" bonus culture and a minimum of effective regulation.

There is every probability that culpability for Fukushima will be spread equally thinly and that strategic "business as usual" will re-emerge in the case of "energy". The same may be expected of the inquiry into the Queensland floods of 2010-2011, as previously discussed (Disastrous Floods as Indicators of Systemic Risk Neglect, 2011). In the midst of the nuclear disaster, and despite its financial consequences, it has been widely noted that the corporation responsible for the reactor design apparently operates tax free (How G.E. reaps billions, tax free, The Global Edition of The New York Times, 26 March 2011).

Radical strategic stress testing: A more appropriate "stress test" might then engage in a more radical exploration of questions such as:

what is the "energy" essential to viable, meaningful quality of life ?
who wants/needs more "energy", now and in the future ?
which kinds of "energy" are required for a viable, meaningful quality of life, and where is it to be obtained?
where is such "energy" required to ensure a viable, meaningful quality of life ?
when is such "energy" required -- considering both immediate needs and those of future generations ?
how is such "energy" to be derived or engendered ?
why is "energy" so fundamental to human civilization ?

Such a pattern of questions raises the currently excluded possibility of considering "energy" in another light -- beyond the limitations of the nuclear vs. renewables framework. What "energy" might possibly reframe both -- if only in the eyes of the future? Such a possibility has previously been explored (Reframing Sustainable Sources of Energy for the Future: the vital role of psychosocial variants, 2006)? It is the subject of further speculative exploration in an accompanying document (Massive Elicitation of Psychosocial Energy: requisite technology for collective enlightenment, 2011).

Recognizing taboos: The absence of such discussion suggests that dialogue about any such possibility is surrounded by what amounts to fundamental taboos -- a case of prejudice exemplified through the "unsaid" (Global Strategic Implications of the Unsaid, 2003). Somehow it is too psychoactively "charged" for considered discussion. Any effort to do so engenders polarization and problematic dynamics -- effectively rendering it impossible. This suggests that any initiative should explore the nature of that problematic arena through a form of meta-dialogue about the possibility of dialogue -- carefully avoiding taking up the hazardous topics in any conventional manner. Simply put there is a need to talk about the talking which is currently impossible. It is presumably the nature and quality of that dialogue which underlies the possibility of sustainable development (Sustainable Dialogue as a Necessary Template for Sustainable Global Community, 1995).

One clue is the observation of policy scientist Geoffrey Vickers: A trap is a function of the nature of the trapped (Freedom in a Rocking Boat: changing values in an unstable society, 1972). The inability to focus on the nature of the trap suggests that it is curiously "hidden" as a form of anathema in the collective unconscious -- reminiscent of the argument made by John Ralston Saul (The Unconscious Civilization, 1995). A clue is also provided by a "pyramid" of curious legal injunctions, notably in British law:

injunction: namely a court order to stop someone doing something, including making information available
super-injunction: a gag order prohibiting mention of itself, namely the existence of the injunction, to avoid creating the impression that there is something of significance to conceal
hyper-injunction: namely prohibiting discussion an issue with "members of Parliament, journalists and lawyers" -- except for purposes of legal defence
meta-injunction: hypothesized in a discussion of the above by Tim Dowling, namely "a form of legal suppression so all-injuncting that it is illegal for me to tell you that there is such a thing" (Got secrets you want to keep? Get a hyper-injunction, The Guardian, 21 March 2011)

In the light of the strategic errors of the past, another clue to "engagement" with the current barrier to collective learning is provided by Donald N. Michael, author of The Unprepared Society: planning for a precarious future (1968) and On Learning to Plan and Planning to Learn (1973). With respect to "the requirement to embrace error", he notes:

More bluntly, future-responsive societal learning makes it necessary for individuals and organizations to embrace error. It is the only way to ensure a shared self-consciousness about limited theory to the nature of social dynamics, about limited data for testing theory, and hence about our limited ability to control our situation well enough to be successful more often than not. (1973).

Michael asks: What personal qualities are required to acknowledge and confront the deep uncertainty and "the inevitable fact of our ignorance" in a complex, fast-changing world? (In Search of the Missing Elephant: selected essays, 2010).

Need for shock learning?: There is therefore a need to frame the challenge in a suitably shocking manner to render the nature of the requisite "embrace" comprehensible. A suitable "cognitive shock" might therefore be offered by suggesting that society is in the paradoxical (if not perverse) position curiously modelled by a charged comparison with the mindset surrounding the prosecution of Oscar Wilde in 1895 for homosexual behaviour. Like Wilde, society today might be said to subscribe to what Wilde famously addressed as The love that dare not speak its name. Rather than that particular behaviour, it is what the future may well perceive as the abominable perversion prevailing today -- surrounded by taboo -- which might be articulated by its proponents as:

Under all and every circumstance my secret love is to procreate -- irrespective of the burden it imposes on others, on social security, food and other systems, or on the environment (in terms of ecological footprint) -- and I will do this until I am no longer able. I expect my religion, my political party, my neighbours and society as a whole to support me with sympathy, or at least unquestioningly, in this endeavour.

In his controversial legal defence of what was perceived by Victorian society as an abominable perversion, Wilde argued:

"The love that dare not speak its name" in this century is such a great affection of an elder for a younger man as there was between David and Jonathan, such as Plato made the very basis of his philosophy, and such as you find in the sonnets of Michelangelo and Shakespeare. It is that deep spiritual affection that is as pure as it is perfect. It dictates and pervades great works of art, like those of Shakespeare and Michelangelo, and those two letters of mine, such as they are. It is in this century misunderstood, so much misunderstood that it may be described as "the love that dare not speak its name," and on that account of it I am placed where I am now. It is beautiful, it is fine, it is the noblest form of affection. There is nothing unnatural about it. It is intellectual, and it repeatedly exists between an older and a younger man, when the older man has intellect, and the younger man has all the joy, hope and glamour of life before him. That it should be so, the world does not understand. The world mocks at it, and sometimes puts one in the pillory for it.

In this century-old case there is a curious degree of equivalence to the opprobrium currently attracted by Julian Assange of Wikileaks in arguing controversially for the transformative merits of greater transparency within the international community. As with Wilde, however, it is not the larger issues which are debated -- questionable secrecy on problematic matters -- but rather the narrow legal technicalities of sexuality necessary for condemnation and closure of the debate through its proponent. The nature and scope of such opprobrium is symbolized by the need of the USA to ensure that a person active in seeking such transparency, Bradley Manning, is made to stand naked each day outside his cell with the full approval of the President of the USA [more]. It is perhaps only curious that the feed from any web cam currently focused on him is not shared beyond those with access to SIPRNET (Julian Borger and David Leigh, Siprnet: where America stores its secret cables, The Guardian, 29 November 2010) -- for worldwide contemplation. [Scope for a relay of volunteers to replicate his treatment for a continuing webcast?]

This is indicative of the convoluted collective mindset within which the more fundamental problems are perversely entangled and disguised -- potentially subject to a "meta-injunction" as mentioned above (Twistedness in Psycho-social Systems: challenge to logic, morality, leadership and personal development, 2004).

It is curious that forcing Manning to stand naked in that way offers a clear symbolic echo of the hundreds of millions forced by dominant global policies to "stand naked " in the slums of many countries -- an elegant complement to the manner by which "universal values" are embodied in the Statue of Liberty, extensively cloaked as the appropriate symbol of the systemic cover-up Manning calls into question. Together they stand (both in a "stress position") like the small "eyes", often omitted in depicting the symbol of the Tao -- indicative of the paradoxical strangeness of a larger truth. The "perversion" is similarly evident in the role of the permanent members of the UN Security Council in claiming overtly to be the defenders of global peace whilst effectively condoning each others activity as principal distributors of arms to any potential combattants. Curiously and ironically the convoluted pattern of denial is usefully represented through the familiar phenomenon of snoring as a metaphor as separately discussed (Snoring of The Other: a politically relevant psycho-spiritual metaphor? 2006). This metaphor is consistent with the analysis of John Ralston Saul (The Unconscious Civilization, 1995).

Unquestioned population factor: It is within this context that unconstrained population growth -- perhaps to be understood as a "wicked problem" -- can indeed be viewed systemically as exacerbating a wide spectrum of problems: energy, food, unemployment, health, shelter, education, social security,poverty, and the like. The current strategic posture is perhaps currently exemplified by the capacity of the UN Security Council to respond so tardily to the Libyan situation (The Art of Non-Decision-Making, 1997). This would seem to invite the intervention of Gaia as the "governor of last resort". Major disasters are one manifestation of such "humanitarian intervention".

Any debate about the matter is highly charged and effectively hazardous. The question is whether, in dialogue about the possibility of dialogue, ways of handling the hazards of such debate more fruitfully could be discovered, as separately argued (Overpopulation Debate as a Psychosocial Hazard: development of safety guidelines from handling other hazardous materials, 2009). The challenge has been evoked by Russ Wellen (Trying to Make Alarm About Overpopulation Politically Correct Again, Foreign Policy in Focus, 23 November 2010). Focusing on derivative problems -- those which derive from unchecked population growth -- can then be understood as an exercise in denial, as exemplified by "climate change" (United Nations Overpopulation Denial Conference: exploring the underside of climate change, 2009).

Is the key to the "exit from the nuclear option" for some countries, such as Germany, to be best explored through the possibility of an "exit from the population growth option"? Rather than how much "energy" is required for unchecked population growth, is it more a question of what level of population ensures a sustainable quality of life for all -- sustained by "energy" of a different quality?

The immense tragedy of the disaster in Japan could be said to raise the stakes in dialogue about issues that are central to global governance in the future. As with the tradition in China and Japan, is it an indicator of the supreme art of governance that the highest authority should be required to do nothing (Paul Gallagher, Emperor Akihito: a bulwark against a sea of troubles, The Observer, 20 March 2011)? In this sense is it the case that the strategic options promoted should simply place the burden of testing their viability on the population at large -- as with nuclear power and GM? Or, recognizing this subtle role of governance, does Japanese culture notably offer unique insights to subtler cognitive modalities of relevance to strategic nimbleness, as separately argued (Ensuring Strategic Resilience through Haiku Patterns: reframing the scope of the "martial arts" in response to strategic threat, 2008)?

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Conclusion