Contrarian Analysis as a Means of Avoiding Intelligence Failure (Non-Kairos references)
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Brasfield, Andrew. Forecasting Accuracy and Cognitive Bias in the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses. Mercyhurst University, Thesis, May 2009. [
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Chido, Diane /
Richard, Seward (Eds.). Structured Analysis of Competing Hypotheses: Theory and Application. Mercyhurst College Institute of Intelligence Studies Press, 2006.
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Critchlow, Keith. The Hidden Geometry of Flowers: living rhythms form and number. Floris Books, 2011.
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Dhami, Mandeep K. The "analysis of competing hypotheses" in intelligence analysis.
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Folker, Robert. Intelligence Analysis in Theater Joint Intelligence Centers: an experiment in applying structured methods. Joint Military Intelligence College, Occasional Paper No. 7, January 2000. [
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Haskell, Edward F. Generalization of the structure of Mendeleev's periodic table. In: E. Haskell (Ed.), Full Circle: The Moral Force of Unified Science. Gordon and Breach, 1972. [
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Heuer, Richards J. The future of 'alternative analysis'. 2007. [
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Heuer, Richards J. Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. Center for the Study of Intelligence / Central Intelligence Agency, 1999. [
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Heuer, Richards J. How does analysis of competing hypotheses (ACH) improve intelligence analysis? 2005. [
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Hitchens, Christopher. The Trial of Henry Kissinger. Verso, 2001. [
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Jervis, R. Reports, Politics and Intelligence ailures: the case of Iraq.
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Kahn, Herman. Thinking about the Unthinkable in the 1980s. Simon and Schuster, 1984.
Kahn, Herman. Thinking about the Unthinkable. Horizon Press, 1962.
Kuhns, W. J. Intelligence Failures: Forecasting and the Lessons from Epistemology.
Paradoxes of Strategic Intelligence, Routledge, 2004.
Lord, C. G. Considering the Opposite: a corrective strategy for social judgment.
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Morin, Edgar. Pour Sortir du XXe Siecle. Fernand Nathan, 1981.
Ritter, Scott. Iraq Confidential: The Untold Story of the Intelligence Conspiracy to Undermine the UN and Overthrow Saddam Hussein. Nation Books, 2006.
Ritter, Scott. War on Iraq: What Team Bush Doesn't Want You to Know. Context Books, 2002.
Sample, Steven B. The Contrarian’s Guide to Leadership. Jossey-Bass, 2002.
Turner, M. A. Why Secret Intelligence Fails. Potomac Books, 2005.
Valtorta, Marco. Extending Heuer’s Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method to Support Complex Decision Analysis.
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MITRE, May 2005.. [
text]
von Oech, Roger. The Creative Contrarian: 20 "Wise Fool" Strategies to Boost Creativity and Curb Groupthink. Wiley, 2021.
Waltman., Katrina M. Structured Analysis of Competing Hypotheses: theory and application. Mercyhurst College Institute of Intelligence Studies Press, 2006.
Wendt, Alexander. Social Theory of International Politics. Cambridge, 1999.
Wendt, Alexander. Quantum Mind and Social Science: unifying physical and social ontology. Cambridge, 2015.
Wendt, Alexander. Flatland: Quantum Mind and the International Hologram. In: Mathias Albert, et al. (Eds), New Systems Theories of World Politics, Palgrave Macmillan, 2010.
Wheaton, Kristan J. /
Diane, Chido. Structured Analysis of Competing Hypotheses: improving a tested intelligence methodology.
Competitive Intelligence Magazine, November-December 2006.
Whitesmith, Martha. Cognitive Bias and Intelligence: testing the analysis of competing hypotheses method. Edinburgh University Press, 2020.
Wisse, Pieter. Metapattern: context and time in information models. Addison Wesley, 2000.