Implication of research on opinion and belief

Mathematical Theology: Future Science of Confidence in Belief (Part #9)

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The argument has proposed the reframing of "theology" to include a wider spectrum of beliefs, enhanced by the insights offered by mathematics (a belief system in its own right). It is appropriate to contrast such a focus on "belief" with that which is central to the disciplines of opinion and attitude research, market research and psephology. These have become absolutely fundamental to the processes of governance and marketing -- even in faith-based cultures..

Given the above references to global simulations, it is interesting to note that these have encouraged the formalization of belief (Philippe Smets, The Application of the Matrix Calculus to Belief Functions, 2004; Glenn Shafer, Belief Functions: introduction). Such "belief functions" derive in part from the Dempster-Shafer theory (DST) of evidence, whereby evidence from different sources can be combined to arrive at a degree of belief (represented by a "belief function"). This is reminiscent of the Gaussian copula basic to the calculation of risk in marketing financial derivatives -- which proved to be at the origin of the recent financial crisis (Gaussian Copula: investment risk, 2009).

There is then value in exploring a representation of the relationship between:

• theology, with its focus on deep engagement with a psychoactive belief of long-term existential significance to identity
• opinion and belief research, with its superficial focus on rapidly shifting patterns of public opinion (appropriately compared with meteorology)
• mathematics, with the fundamental formalization it offers to both and the fundamental preoccupation with "infinity" (to be compared with "divinity)

Both theology and mathematics have a concern with the "transcendental", despite a degree of implication in the "mundane" -- which is the preoccupation of opinion research. All have a concern with eliciting a degree of order, although it is opinion research (with the aid of mathematics) which engages more directly with "fuzziness". Mathematics and theology share a concern with the fundamental nature of order itself. Given the argument above for "neurotheology" as a form of metatheology, it is interesting to note that a new frontier in market research is neuromarketing.

There is a degree of irony to the fact that, despite arguments by mystics that "God is a verb", it is opinion and belief research which is actually preoccupied with an understanding of "divine" as a verb -- in its continuing effort to divine public opinion. Although "futures research" is now the preferred academic discipline for exploring insights into the future, it is appropriate to recall the active role still played by "divination" (Engaging with the Future with Insights of the Past, 2010).

With respect to intractable conflict, opinion research could be said to be currently more influential than either theology or mathematics -- by reflecting attitudes towards it capable of influencing governance. Whilst mathematics and theology are variously complicit in encouraging or enabling such conflict, they have yet to imagine remedial responses to it -- as envisaged here through mathematical theology.

NB: See Conclusion in main document; Bibliographical references are provided in a separate document: Bibliography of Relevance to Mathematical Theology

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