Sensing the future

Metaphor and the Language of Futures (Part #3)

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The future is obviously a feature of our understanding of time. And yet, lacking any organs to sense the dimensions of time, we choose to understand the future by making metaphoric use of organs through which the natural environment is sensed. But even then there is a metaphoric bias (at least in Western-influenced thinking) in favour of one sense, the sense of sight (hence "foresight"), at the expense of the other senses. As Richard Slaughter (18) puts it: "It suggests a kind of vision -- a vision of the mind rather than of the organs of sight." Use of the sight metaphor in this context is part of long tradition as indicated by the term "seer".

He notes that foresight "springs, in part, from unconscious sources...it is grounded in innate human capacities and needs, but its social expressions require institutional arrangements." Little needs to be said about the extensive preoccupation with "vision" and "foresight" in the futures literature, or with the consequent concern with different "perspectives" and "views". In relation to policy-making, it is helpful to understand such uses as originating from the evident needs of either a migrating tribe or a ship.

The tribe needs a scouting patrol (an avant garde) to provide a sense of dangers and opportunities, especially in the direction in which the tribe is proposing to move. A "lookout" function may be required as in the case of the ship. However the ship metaphor draws attention to hidden dangers of reefs and shoals, and hence the need for "forecasting" to assess the depth of the waters into which the ship is moving -- "plumbing" the future has the same origin. "Extrapolation" is presumably constrained by the spatial perspective of a surveyor.

More interesting is the implication that an "image" or "vision" can be developed (or "envisaged"), as an exercise of the disciplined imagination, and projected onto a future that functions rather like a movie screen, or like a space to be decorated prior to becoming habitable. In Slaughter's terms (18), the yield of past experience "is symbolically transformed through being 'read-upon' as-yet undetermined situations." Ithiel de la Sola Pool (19) has contrasted the use of foresight and hindsight. But whereas "revision" of the future is acceptable, hindsight needs to be related to the the controversial aspects of historical "revision".

Use of a sight-based metaphor opens discussion on how such foresight might be enhanced. Can lookouts indeed be provided with "telescopes" or other "remote sensing" equipment? Joël de Rosnay has authored a book called Macroscope (20). This could lead into questions of the comparative "resolution" of different instruments.

To what extent is futures implicitly influenced by the developing understanding of the relationship between sight and time in astronomy? With telescopes astronomers effectively look millions of years "into the past" -- as determined by the speed of light and the distance of the phenomena. Using foresight, futurists engage in similar observations with respect to the future. In this case "distance" is created by limitations on ability to detect faint signals and interpret them as emerging trends. The greater the difficulty, the greater the distance, and the greater the dependence on the "resolving capacity" of the observer. But in complete contrast to the astronomical case, the greater the distance, the further "into the future" lies the emergence of the phenomena so detected. But whilst a particular observer may detect such phenomena as "distant", for another observer the trends may be a matter of daily experience. This calls for attention to the conceptual distance between futurists and the challenges of communication between them, especially when the developing understanding of each observer ensures that they are not "static". Responding to positions in a researcher's paper of 30, 10, or even 3 years past, may be somewhat meaningless, if the author has "moved on". The theory of relativity might indeed provide a metaphor to clarify the relationship between such moving frames of reference (21). Experientially, the past for one observer, maybe the future for another -- ageing offers a prime example.

The metaphor suggests the possibility of defects of sight and the dysfunctional ways in which images of the future may be captured on a collective "retina". This has led to occasional references to the short-sightedness of short-term decision-making in terms of myopia (as in myopic leadership). But the other possible defects of sight have never been explored from this perspective. Long-sightedness (presbyopia) is the difficulty, that tends to arise with age, of accommodating the eye to near vision -- a problem of many visionaries and "far-sighted" people who are wont to stumble when taking the next step.

There are also the problems of astigmatism (distorted focus). Night myopia and the uncorrectable nature of colour blindness suggest further possibilities. What makes for a "distorted view" of the future? Clearly technocrats are sensitive to a particular spectrum of future possibilities, but not to those which many others consider vital. The range of such difficulties raises the question of how to correct for such defects using appropriate "corrective lenses" . In this sense, perhaps what futures studies requires are opticians and an eye test!

(b) Without foresight ?

The constraints of future sensing based on an implicit sight metaphor (above) only really emerge by contrasting the understanding suggested through each other metaphoric sense. These might include:

• "forehearing" or "forelistening", more commonly represented by popular interest in "foretelling" and "prediction" but also by the listening abilities of politicians and intelligence agencies;
• "foresmell", typified by the ability to "smell it in the wind" or that conditions "smell right";
• "foretaste", notably through samples of social problems that may get better or worse;
• "foretouch" or "forefeel", typified by popular expressions such as "I can feel it coming" and the US TV series "Touch the Future" produced by Michael Mendizza;
• "sixth sense", such as intuition (and possibly "foreboding", or "presentiment") now gaining recognition in management programmes acknowledging a faculty of entrepreneurs.

Insights through the foresight metaphor may be adulterated and confused with insights from these other metaphoric senses. Examples of their use are poorly represented in futures literature and appear less credible. This is to be expected in the case of inhibited or undeveloped functions, or with any deep-seated bias in favour of sight-based insight. But are they irrelevant to how people "feel" about the future? Beyond the need for corrective spectacles and night vision enhancement, is there merit in considering "hearing aids" (of which the USA/NSA Big Ear electronic surveillance project is perhaps the most costly example), and the protective use of "canaries" when "mining" the future ? "Whistleblowers" and "moles" have related functions.

(c) "Forehearing"

A sight-based metaphor is to be expected to yield riches in the visual culture of the West. But a term such as "forehearing" does not exist, although it may be of significance in aural cultures. Scouting parties are however required to make use of hearing, and within the ship metaphor the sound of a "foghorn" may be vital in detecting future dangers. Bells are tied to the necks of the herd animals of a tribe to locate them over long distances. Reference is made in the futures literature to hearing the "voices" of the future -- especially in relation to children, but also to future generations more generally. Jacques Attali has reviewed the importance of musical forms of particular epochs as prefiguring future social organization. In this sense the organization of contemporary music can be considered as structuring our sensitivity to credible forms of social organization that may later emerge.

It could be argued that it is "prediction" (or foretelling) that engenders an aural response to the future. Prediction plays an important role in many aural cultures, even today. In the West it is primarily associated with a supposedly unhealthy interest in dubious systems of divination. As such it may be considered a repressed function, although its various manifestations are reputed to attract more funding than most academic research programmes. "Channelling", as a modern manifestation, has become a major phenomenon, especially in North America.

Despite the above, metaphoric use of hearing is significant to politicians who praise themselves for "listening" to the electorate. Political leaders are often rated successful because they knew how to "listen" to the population to detect emerging problems -- reminiscent of the skills of a physician in auscultation. Strangely, despite its importance to Western thinking, people listen to feedback rather than viewing it in any way.

Again it may be asked what might be supplied to enhance the capacity of visual cultures to "hear" the future. From what defects might the hearing capacity of society (or the futures movement) be suffering? Some form of "deafness" is clearly a potential problem calling for some form of "hearing aid". Superficial absence of deafness may disguise inability to hear sounds of higher frequency, notably as a result of being effectively deafened by high decibel sound. This is an increasing problem for the young. Tone deafness is the inability to distinguish different tones. Little if anything can be done for such problems.

(d) "Foresmell"

Use of metaphors based on the olfactory function are not common in futures literature. A term such as "foresmell" or its equivalents does not exist. But such a sense is not uncommon in folk references to future events, notably the ability to "smell it in the wind". Expressions such as "the future stinks" would be quite understandable in contemporary discussion, but they give little understanding of how that perception is arrived at. Mention might also be made of the traditional use of canaries to detect a developing problem of gas in mines.

As the canary case highlights, the only means that has been effectively developed to enhance the sense of smell is indirectly through the use of animals. Whether man's sense of smell has been effectively lost in responding to the future, the interesting possibility of using animals points to the importance of species endangerment and extinction as indicators of the nonviability of the future.

(e) Foretaste

Metaphors based on the taste function are not common in futures literature. "Foretaste" is of course commonly used to refer to any presently accessible sample of what the future may bring. It is notably used by those bearing warnings (or threats) of impending disaster who refer to current experience of minor disasters as an example of what may come. It is more common in fiction whether in referring to a warning beating (such as by those seeking protection money) or to a sample of pleasures to come in a seduction scene.

It could be argued that in terms of this metaphor, there has been a numbing of the tastebuds, or a loss of ability to taste the future. In a sense the future has lost its taste for many -- it will be more of the same, or worse. Efforts to enhance the capacity to taste the future could take the form of offering experiences of positive and negative conditions as a foretaste -- wine tastings might prove an interesting metaphor. Many alternative communities would believe that they offer a foretaste of a positive future. Disadvantaged individuals and communities provide the negative equivalent -- of which the problems of ageing are common to all.

(f) "Foretouch"

There are few future-oriented metaphors based on touch in the futures literature. One possible exception is that of "being out of touch", which is much exploited by telephone service publicity. The ability to "forefeel" is however common in popular language in expressions such as: "I can feel it coming", "I can feel it in my bones". One of the functions of a scouting party is of course to make "contact" with a potential enemy.

Many in the West would associate the weakness of this ability with widespread loss of feeling and increasing self-centredness, and the inability to "reach out and touch" one's neighbour in distress. People can be "touched" by the tragic situation of others. Neither of these has implications for touching the future.

(g) "Sixth sense"

Metaphoric references to any sixth sense in relation to the future tend to be confined to popular language where action on the basis of "intuition", "gut feeling" or "foreboding" is fairly common. A number of management programmes and texts now make specific reference to the importance of intuition for an entrepreneur in assessing future possibilities -- although it is questionable whether this is a metaphoric usage. There are also scathing references to the ability of "rats" to determine in advance when to desert an enterprise in distress.

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