From secretive single-issue modelling to open-source multi-issue modelling

Misleading Modelling of Global Crises (Part #7)

It is an evident characteristic of many global models that they are the work of a small group of academic specialists within an institution -- possibly recognized as a think tank. The funding and other constraints of any such context reinforce tendencies to secrecy as a protection of intellectual property, of the career path of the individuals, and of the promotion of the prospects of the institution. The efforts to protect intellectual property can be understood as a major constraint on requisite global strategic resilience, as argued separately (Future Coping Strategies: beyond the constraints of proprietary metaphors, 1992). The algorithms creatively developed may well be a particular focus of concern. The secrecy considered necessary may well inhibit vital corrective feedback.

In order to fund such an initiative it is necessarily framed to appeal to foundations and other bodies which are themselves concerned with ensuring the specificity and topical relevance of any model. Funding is typically ensured within a contract of short-term nature. It is therefore difficult to envisage model construction exploring a multiplicity of issues, especially those of seemingly limited relevance to potential clients, and more especially to allow for the possibility of unforeseeable emergent issues. These factors can all be recognized as operating as biases in model design.

It is therefore of value to consider approaches which go to the other extreme, namely in favouring multi-issue profiling in a sustainable open-source context. Such extremes are associated with other challenges, notably the extent to which they may be usefully recognized as "models" from a conventional perspective.

An obvious example is provided by the remarkable appeal of Wikipedia -- especially in the light of the highly problematic edit wars for which it provides a context (Róbert Sumi, et al, Edit wars in Wikipedia, 9 February 2012). In contrast with conventional single-issue models, its value can be readily challenged in terms of its predictive limitations -- however many of its entries may be indicative of current and emergent challenges. As a model, even as a source of data, it is readily deprecated from an academic perspective and the priorities which that cultivates.

Another example is the Encyclopedia of World Problems and Human Potential (noted above), given the integration of its data sets with the Yearbook of International Organizations. Although assiduous in responding to the variety of extant international perspectives on problems and advocated strategies, it is especially attentive to their placement within a systemic context -- in contrast to the approach of Wikipedia. However its entries draw directly and automatically on Wikipedia profiles where complementary information can be found. The linkages integrate entries into multiple hierarchies and causal chains.

Rather than excluding perceptions as "wrong", the profiles provide for both potentially exaggerated claims as to their relative importance and/or their irrelevance as otherwise perceived. This enables inclusion of a very wide variety of perspectives, whether or not they are considered dangerously misleading from some other perspective, however authoritative it may claim itself to be. This enables the real-world dynamics between claims and counter-claims to be explored using network analytic tools (Preliminary NetMap Studies of Databases on Questions, World Problems, Global Strategies, and Values, 2006).

Indication of the visual displays of selected Encyclopedia data using Netmap
Study of Energy Strategies (represents 1472 strategies and 4790 links; click on image for larger version)		Strategies responding to Violence (represents 2367 strategies and 6740 links; click on image for larger version)
emergent groups	detail	emergent groups	detail

Study of Water-related Problems (represents 1690 problems and 4115 links; click on image for larger version)		Study of Water-related Strategies (represents 1506 and 5730 links; click on image for larger version)
emergent groups	detail	emergent groups	detail

It is therefore as a network of relationships that the interrelated data sets constitute a contrasting model, as mentioned above (Simulating a Global Brain: using networks of international organizations, world problems, strategies, and values, 2001).

Particular consideration is given to the detection and visual representation of complex causal loops between problems or strategies, as indicated by the following images showing selections resulting from the interactive extraction of loops of different sizes using a force-directed layout technique. as developed and described by Tomáš Fülöpp (Loop Mining in the Encyclopedia of World Problems) prepared for the 17th International Futures Conference (Tackling Wicked Problems: where futures research, education and action meet, Turku, 2015).

Selective views of systemic relationships between perceived problems
179 loops containing 3 nodes	1212 loops containing 6 nodes.	379 loops containing 5 nodes (animation of interactive selection)

Images derived from the online Encyclopedia of World Problems and Human Potential

This approach is contrasted separately with the transformation maps currently promoted by the World Economic Forum:

Transformation maps -- as "strategic mandalas"?
Missing "halves" of the Global Reset mandalas?
Learning from other social change initiatives -- past and present

Knowledge cybernetics: the self-referential requirement of any viable reset

In the case of the online Encyclopedia initiative, extensive commentaries are available on the methodology employed, including:

"Problems"	"Strategies"
Overview / Summary Constraints on a problem-focused approach Framework for interrelating incompatible perspectives Problem inclusion / Problem exclusion Patterning the problematique	Overview / Summary Conceptual processes summarized "Positive" vs "Negative" strategies Integrating constraint and opposition Patterning the resolutique

Specific commentaries focus on: Biases, Strengths and weaknesses, Criticism, International organizations as a source, Global modelling perspective, as well as considering Future possibilities. Given the emphasis on perceptions of problems, the data could be considered to constitute a global compilation of collective biases.

Criticism of the Encyclopedia initiative offers useful pointers to critical appreciation of global modelling of crises more generally, as argued separately (Flatulence is a Problem Aired: resmelling the stench of past undertakings, 2013). Given that air pollution is but one of many problems to which people are sensitive, it frames the question of how crises could be more appropriately modelled and for whom -- a question which critics fail to address.