Extreme considerations in intelligence gathering

Enabling Collective Intelligence in Response to Emergencies (Part #5)

In considering the case of the BP oil spill, in the light of the challenges and possibilities outlined above, it is also useful to note the challenge of appropriate responses to extreme instances of collective intelligence gathering:

"Crack-pot" ideas: Any effort to enable collective intelligence is highly likely to encourage a quantity of "crack-pot" ideas. Under the circumstances of an emergency however the concern is to facilitate what amounts to "brainstorming" and to be cautious about premature closure on possibilities and condemnation of ideas. The challenge is to gather ideas and to enable judgemental processes to take place thereafter. Odd-ball ideas may trigger more appropriate responses or be essential to the design of such responses. Excessively strong gate-keeper functions may also discourage the subsequent supply of any feedback. In the case of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill there is of course the issue of the deprecation of "crackpot" ideas when the problem might be said to have arisen in the first place from the "cracking of the pot". Is drilling under those conditions, with inadequate precautionary measures, to be recognized as a "crackpot" idea in its own right?

Whistleblowing challenge: The role of whistleblowers in providing warnings of possible disaster has been much debated. In the case of the historically massive Ponzi scheme managed by Bernard Madoff, the role has been highlighted through the action of Harry Markopolos, over a 10-year period, in informing the U.S. Securities an Exchange Commission (SEC) that he believed it was legally and mathematically impossible to achieve the gains Madoff claimed to deliver (No One Would Listen: a true financial thriller, 2010).

Political and disciplinary "turf wars": Clearly no discipline or industry sector is happy to admit to lacking ideas (or to incompetence) in the face of emergencies, however evident the disaster, as in the case of the oil spill and the failure to contain it. Professional pride is such that there is a willingness to accept a worsening of the disaster -- greater loss of life, and environmental consequences -- rather than seek help from other domains, or to accept it when offered. This has notably been the case with the BP oil spill. Of notable relevance, in the case of Hurricane Katrina, was the failure of the USA to accept any assistance from Cuba -- with recognized capacity in handling the aftermath of such disasters.

Hoping and praying: Aside from the assertions made by faith-based groups that disasters should be interpreted as divine retribution (as in the case of Hurricane Katrina), such groups also encourage a process of "hoping" and "praying" that conventional remedial initiatives will succeed. A dangerous in this modality is when it inhibits more radical consideration of otherwise neglected options.

Military competence: Given the acclaimed emergency preparedness of the military, with regard to matters of "security" it is curious to note the considerable delays in engaging the immense technology and manpower resources in response to crises. One striking example was offered by the recent widespread flooding in the UK where it was widely remarked that a major concern was ensuring freshwater facilities for stranded homeowners. Despite considerable coverage of survival skills by the BBC in past years, those with such skills were not evident at the time of the disaster, nor were water purification pills made available. Rather relief was delayed until military involvement was ensured -- to deliver bottles of commercially available water.

Unexpected sources: Society celebrates human ingenuity and invention. Much computer technology and many applications have emerged from unexpected sources -- not from recognized sources. It is therefore curious that useful ideas in response to disastrous situations should be sought primarily from the bodies that have proven to be more than complicit in creating and exacerbating such disasters. If the complexity of disaster can be fruitfully compared to an intractable mathematical problem, it is relevant to note under what circumstances, and by whom, solutions to such problems emerge. An example is provided by the case of Grigori Perelman who recently provided a solution to the Poincaré conjecture -- viewed as one of the most important and difficult open problems in mathematics until it was solved. He refused the award that had been offered for the solution. An even more extreme example is provided by the mathematician Srinivasa Ramanujan.