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Radical identification of the root cause of terrorism


Coming Out as a Radical -- or Coming In? (Part #6)

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Root Cause Analysis (RCA): Given the well-formed approach outlined above, the question is how RCA and the 5-Whys have been applied to terrorism. Surprisingly, given the magnitude of the problem, there is relatively little reference to this other than the following:

For Magnus Ranstorp (Ed.): Mapping Terrorism Research: State of the Art, Gaps and Future Direction (2006)

Root cause analysis, for example, provides a methodology to research and systematically map the spectrum of root causes underlying a rebellion's origins, girevances and demands. In ideal cases, it is hoped that such mapping of root causes will then produce the knowledge to formulate appropriate governmental responses. Understanding a conflict's underlying root causes can provide a government with the capability to effectively calibrate its response strategies and tactics to specific challenges and threats. (pp. 45)

In a section on Root Cause Analysis within The Huffington Post, Jack Redwab (We Must Rethink The Root Causes Of Terror, 16 November 2015) argues:

Analysts often use the term root causes to contend that it is either the actions or inaction of Western democracies that contribute to such heinous acts. Some counter that engaging in such an exercise risks blaming the victims for the attack. Still several credible observers assume that the eradication of terrorism requires the identification and removal of its root causes. They contend that such knowledge is fundamental to comprehending the context within which terrorist attacks occur and thereby help determine what actions need to be taken to prevent their re-occurrence.

Former World Bank head James Wolfensohn has referred to the "root causes of terrorism as economic exclusion, poverty and under-development." NATO's top commander Gen. Philip Breedlove has declared that "until the [root] causes of instability and radicalism in places such as Iraq and Syria are addressed, the West can expect to be engaged in foreign conflicts for a long time... " According to Breedlove, the way to address these root causes is by focusing on bringing jobs, education, health and safety to vulnerable places, as well as figuring out how to make governments "responsive to their people."

Long after the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, there was debate about its purported root causes. Simply attributing the attacks to hatred was described as an oversimplification.

Whilst other references (especially the more recent) indeed focus on recognition of the root cause of terrorism, the methodology of the analytical focus above is no longer evident -- especially with respect to any clarifying map:.

Michael Nagler: The New Abnormal: Reflections on Paris, Metta Center for Nonviolence, 14 November 2015

After expressing our condolences we should be saying, 'Let us now pledge ourselves to get to the root of this problem' - and have the courage to follow that inquiry wherever it leads

Martin Edmonds and Oldrich Cerny (Eds.): Future NATO Security: addressing the challenges of evolving sscurity and information sharing systems and architectures. IOS Press, 2004 [Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Future NATO Security, 2003, Prague]

Barry Denofsky: It was intrusting to listen to... comments about the nature of the structure of al Qaeda, and their ability to meet anywhere, to do anything almost at s moment's notice, with very little structure in place,and to provie for the types of communications we are most comfortable with... I wonder, as we talk about these issues, how we should address them. How do we get our nations to sit down, as we are doing today, and talk about some of these issues in a way that can actually have a meaningful impact on the threat? The threat is changing so fast... But we do not seem to have the ability to get to the root of the problem and find ways to address these issues... how do we bring those issues... into reality when we have got a situation that is changing faster than we are able to respond?

Causal Layered Analysis (CLA): The use of Causal Layered Analysis in understanding terrorism is reviewed by Noni Kenny (Meta-level Terrorism Futures: constructing and deconstructing using Causal Layered Analysis, Queensland University of Technology, 2013):

Terrorism literature is replete with concerns for the future, endorsing terrorism as an unwavering problem of the past, present and well into the future. These concerns must be challenged by identifying and engaging with stakeholders and with alternate visions of terrorism futures, such as futures alignment and even competing utopian terrorism futures....Terrorism futures can be likened to a maze viewed from above; depicting prospects for opening new doors and pathways into, around or out of the maze, presenting an opportunity to build layered knowledge, understanding and even shared and preferred terrorism futures. Generating alternative images of terrorism futures, whether positive, negative, possible, probable or preferable, is essential for advancing terrorism knowledge and preparations for those futures.

Of relevance to this argument, particular points made by Kenny include:

  • Enquiry into the 'root causes' of terrorism, rather than its manifestations, is a level of inquiry that is widely supported in the Terrorism Studies community (Weinberg and Eubank 2000, 94).
  • The literature on the root causes of terrorism provides an excellent base for these discussions, and extends to investigating the connections/disconnections with the drivers of terrorism litany futures. However, as mentioned above, these investigations conform to existing knowledge structures and paradigms (Kelly 2010, 1111) of, largely, psychologists and governments. Identifying and understanding the impacts of the relevant drivers and on the overall threat is imperative to effective futures preparations and a positive futures manipulation mindset. (p. 146)
  • Huntington's clashing civilisations theory positions civilisations as the dominant sources of conflict. If terrorism were the result of differences between civilisations, the causes of terrorism would obviously be found within those civilisational differences. This hypothesis (that terrorism's causes are civilisational) negates the knowledge generated at the litany and systemic causes levels. Specifically, at the litany level it renders irrelevant the history of terrorism, and at the systemic causes level, it rejects the extensive knowledge of the root causes of terrorism and its prelude, radicalisation. Instead, the civilisation worldview complements knowledge at the stakeholder worldview level and positions itself as a means of conflict definition. (p. 228)
  • The adversarial identification of terrorist entities at the systemic causes level is arguably reinforced by the binary logic of the 'us versus them' and 'the West versus the rest' metaphors, influencing vast amounts of literature on terrorism's root causes which located the source of the threat at the intrapersonal, interpersonal and/or environmental levels. These stances in the literature reinforce the necessity of identifying, and of acting/reacting to, terrorism. Ideally, the most effective and robust initiatives will address the threat manifestations uncovered in the litany while also maintaining a focus and actively contributing to the alleviation of the originating conditions of terrorism and radicalisation: the terrorism gateways. (p. 284)

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